Just last week, the people of Scotland went to the polls in a well publicized referendum to vote on whether or not to continue to be part of the United Kingdom; a union that was forged more than three centuries ago.
Leading up to the referendum, analysts had predicted how a “Yes” vote was going to affect not just the economy and politics of Great Britain, but how it would rub off on and reshape the geopolitics of Europe especially that of Far Europe, given the separatist tendencies that pervade much of that region in the present time. In Spain the Catalonains exuberantly expected a Yes vote so as to latch unto it to press home their demands for a separate state from the Spanish state that thinks otherwise.
In France, the Brittany, Corsica and the Basques separatists who profess a unique identity from the mainstream French, waited with interest to see how the Scottish question will be decided while in faraway Canada the Quebecs anxiously wanted the Scottish independence vote to determine how far they can leverage on it to pursue their dreams.
As the referendum date approached, fears became palpable in Africa, that a ‘Yes’ vote in favour for an independent Scotland will set off a series of deeper agitations for self determination by different groups already habouring such tendencies. Most of Africa waited in utter anxiety expecting a vote that will bring an end to the Union that forced its own African diverse groupings into one “nations-states” just for the administrative convenience of the colonial masters while giving them the mantra of “unity in diversity” as the strength of the forced unions.
That majority of Scots voted No in the referendum thereby signifying their overwhelming desire to remain in the United Kingdom despite bearing a resource that puts the Kingdom among the league of great economies in Europe is immaterial at this point. The leading actors in the quest for Scottish self- determination have all moved on to other things. Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scotland National Party, SNP has since resigned leadership of the party but affirms that the end to the Scottish quest for an independent state is not over, albeit peacefully.
The high point of the referendum is not in the result to stay together but lies in the conviction by the United Kingdom authorities that a group of distinct people in any union whether forced or voluntary, have the universal right at any point in time to determine either to continue to stay in that union or otherwise. That was the basic lesson that exercise threw up and it will for a long time form the roadmap that will guide all lovers of peace and liberal democracy.
It is instructive that oil which is a major cash cow for the United Kingdom economy has 95 per cent of it deposited in Scotland, yet the Scots in total disregard for this voted to remain in the United Kingdom. This shows that the Scots are not even overtly dependent on the oil money since the economy runs well alongside other viable sectors and that the considerations to remain in the union were more socio-political than economic.
Lessons abound for Africa from the Scotland vote. For one it has shown that violent change is inevitable when peaceful change becomes impossible according to Franz Fanon. The Scots did not need to take up arms to force an exit from the Union because the federating authorities created an opportunity for the Scots to determine through a valid referendum whether or not to continue to stay in the union.
In Africa most of the internal conflicts in the recent past can be located in the desire by one group of people to either force another group to remain in a union because the seceding unit has abundant deposits of the natural and national resources or one group trying to secede on account of their region bearing the resource that sustains the state. Civil wars have been fought in Sudan, Angola and Nigeria on account of the above reason irrespective of what the protagonists make the world believe.
In Nigeria, some of the vanguards of ethnic nationalism like the Odua Peoples Congreess, OPC, Movement for the Actualisation of the Sovereign State of Biafra, MASSOB, Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People,MOSOP and others have all grown from peaceful assemblies to militant organizations simply because the ruling class has vehemently refused to allow these ethnic nationalists to pursue policies of self determination through peaceful means.
If the British that clobbered us together just hundred years ago could allow one of its units to pursue a course of self determination after 307 years, then what reasons do we have not to allow ourselves such opportunities?
Recent events in Nigeria show that a “rag tag” militia as we are meant to understand is gradually overrunning a certain section of the country and the reasons may not be unconnected with the desire to force a group of people to remain in the union against their wish. As a super power in the West African sub-region, Nigeria should be able to prosecute two wars in two different fronts at the same time, wining one enemy decisively and keeping the other at bay as long as the conflict lasts. The recent revelation by the Nigerian military high command that it wants to engage about 10,000 Nigerian retired soldiers to enable it to push back the rampaging Boko Haram insurgents in North Eastern part of the country was a security information flop and an insensitive gambit by the authorities concerned. For one it has shown how hollow the Nigerian military power is and any attempt by any other militia to enforce a secessionist campaign in any other part of the country will put Nigeria beyond the precipice.
Without advocating that government should acquiesce to the unreasonable and greedy demands of insurgent warlords and criminal mafia gangs, it is time to begin to listen to nationalities who seek to pursue policies of self determination in constructive and organized methods like referendum and plebiscite. Maybe and just maybe such exercises will put some violent agitations to their ends. After all nothing says the people will always cast separatist votes as the Scotland referendum has shown. It could just be that the agitations are peddled by elements who desperately want to carve out fiefdoms for themselves.
*Okoro is a postgraduate student of Diplomacy and Strategic Studies, University of Lagos
Source: SunNews